Could there be an outcome other than Anwar winning?
Realistically, I can’t see Anwar not being first past the post come 10pm on 13th October, 2018.
However, given what this by-election represents, Anwar just winning may not be enough.
He cannot drop below the 60% of the votes garnered by PKR on 9th May.
Let’s look at the figures.
Going by the electoral roll during the 14th GE, there are 75,212 registered voters in Port Dickson.
Turnout on 9th May, 2018 was 62,548, or 83%.
Of these, PKR took 59.06%, BN took 30.19% whilst PAS took 10.75%.
EC announced that it expects a 70% voter turnout, or 52,648 voters on 13th October, 2018.
2 from political parties, and 5 independent
Assume the PAS candidate, Mohd Nazari Mokhtar, can, as they did in the 14th GE, take 11% of the 70% voter turnout.
That’s 5,791 votes.
No BN candidate this time around, but you have Isa Samad, 1 of the 5 independent candidates, and he will be hoping to tap into the numbers who voted for BN on 9th May.
It might be worth noting here that of those who voted BN on 9th May, the Malays in particular, many would now have been feted to news reports of the police raids at the Pavilion apartments, the loot seized, and the slew of charges that have been thrown at Najib.
Where these votes would now go to is anyone’s guess.
Let’s assume, though, that Isa Samad will pick all of these, too.
Lets assume he takes 31% of the expected 70% voter turnout.
16,321 votes for Isa Samad.
Potentially, that leaves a total of 30,536 votes for Anwar, or a number close to that, assuming the 4 other independent candidates all lose their deposits.
Looked at this way, its hard to see Anwar not winning.
Having said that, it would do well for Anwar to remember that at the SEA games in Manila in 1991, in the football tournament, when Malaysia played the Philippines, who were never renowned as a footballing nation, the hosts were expected to be trashed by us.
Malaysia lost 1-0.
Politics, and elections, like football, can be unpredictable.
Based on my assumptions above, PAS’s Nazari and Isa Samad will get their election deposit back.
What of the other 4 independent candidates?
Saiful, Stevie Chan, Kan Chee Yuen and Lau Seck Yan
Candidates will lose their deposit if they do not garner 1/8 of the votes cast.
Again, taking the EC estimate of a 70% voter turnout, or 52,648 voters, each of those 4 other independent candidates must each secure 6,581 votes to have their deposit refunded.
I have to say I find his candidacy strange, if not downright bizarre.
He says it is not with a view to rake up the past.
No one is backing him, he claims, and he has gotten into the fray to celebrate democracy.
Frankly, I don’t buy this, and I think most PD voters won’t either.
Now, Anwar has urged that campaigning in this by-election be kept “clean”.
I think we might be able to expect this, outwardly at least, from all the candidates, including even Isa and PAS’s Nazari.
In this regard, Saiful, I think, must be watched.
And I really don’t see him getting his deposit back.
I think the voters will be gleefully looking forward to making sure of that.
Next, Stevie, Kan and Lau.
I searched through the internet for a photo of Kan, but I could not find one that could be downloaded.
This is what Malaysiakini had to say of him :
“The 45-year-old is a trainer and consultant for company business transformation, with clients including GLCs.
Kan said he was also Batu MP P Prabakaran’s “mentor” during the May general election.
He described himself as a “supporter of the current government” and heavily involved with the “humanities and social justice”.
He decided to contest because he believes it is time for politics in Malaysia to pivot from “talking bad things about other people”.
Instead, he said he would like to bring a new perspective to politics that is to focus on advancement and professionalism in the country”.
I chanced upon a Berita Harian report that has Kan saying he has not started campaigning as yet.
Based on what Malaysiakini has to say, I guess we can expect Kan to have only good things to say about the other candidates.
Stevie released an election manifesto. You can read about it HERE.
9 days before nomination, NST quoted Stevie as saying that he hoped that “with the support of those who share my concerns, we could use the days to show our politicians – no matter from which side – that the voice of the Rakyat cannot be taken for granted again” and that the “forced by-election is completely unnecessary and untimely” and at “a time where everyone needs to work together to realize the aspiration of Harapan voters, especially in reform agenda and policy-making, such distraction is unwanted”.
Many on social media have expressed similar sentiments, and have called on the voters in PD to teach Anwar and PKR a lesson.
Interestingly, The Star reported today that Lau was also “against the principle behind PKR engineering a by-election just so that certain politicians can contest the seat”.
Will Stevie and / or Lau make this an election issue, and, if either or both do, will it find traction with any of the PD voters?
Why I am looking forward to this by-election has actually been summed up by Lau.
The same Star report quotes her as saying that she “wants voters to open their eyes and hearts when selecting the candidate who would sincerely represent them”.
This is important.
UMNO / BN are no longer in power.
This is not a general election.
This by-election has been forced to enable Anwar to ready himself to take over as PM from Dr M.
The nation can sit back and watch as he showcases himself as the PM-in-waiting.
PD voters, this time, do not have to be preoccupied with a national agenda to get rid of a tyrant.
That’s been done.
And yet, this by-election, in an all-important sense, serves as a poll of national significance
The question voters must ask, as they go to cast their vote on 13th October, is, “Is this the man we want as the 8th PM?”.
Whilst keeping to the call to keep the election campaign clean, perhaps this is the most important issue that both Stevie and Lau, too, must canvass before the voters.
Is Anwar the man you want to lead this nation as the 8th Prime Minister?
Will Stevie, Kan and Lau lose their deposits?
We lost to the Philippines, remember?
Anything can happen.
May the best man win.
Source : Haris Ibrahim
Dear Anwar ,
By this, are we to understand that the PD by-election is a sort of solatium from the rakyat to you to compensate you for your suffering?
What’s it costing?
On this, your suffering, allow me to refresh your memory of a talk you delivered at the Bar Council auditorium in October, 2004, about a month after your release from prison.
For about an hour, you lamented on how, amongst others, you had suffered at the hands of an unjust system of administration of justice.
During Q&A, I was first to the mike.
I addressed the matter of your suffering and asked pointed questions.
I do not propose to repeat them or your responses here, and I hope I never ever have to.
They revolve around the law of Karma.
Sir, like most, I am happy that you are out, and fully pardoned.
A travesty undone.
Allah be praised.
I offer here, Sir, my 2-sen on two matters.
First, in April 2008, if my memory serves me well, in Kampung Baru, KL, you first spoke of Ketuanan Rakyat.
The power of the people.
Please understand that post 9th May, 2018, we, the rakyat, are no longer the people so long suppressed by BN.
We fully understand and have experienced the sheer power in our hands when we come together to bring down a hated regime.
Yes, we are fatigued from that GE and the string of by-elections that we have had to go through recently.
You spoke then of Ketuanan Rakyat.
We live it today.
We have experienced and fully understand people power.
That is my first point.
Your agreement with Dr M to replace him as PM is precisely that.
An agreement between you two, and perhaps a consensus within the PH coalition.
Please do not see that as a mandate from the rakyat.
Your language in recent times leaves many with the impression that you are of the view that your becoming the 8th prime minister is a given.
And as I said earlier, language can be so confusing.
For the avoidance of doubt, let me say that you should not take your becoming the 8th PM of this beloved nation of ours as a given.
You may well ascend to that office in due course, but please do not take it as a foregone conclusion.
Many would like to get to know you better, so that we have an idea of what you will bring to that office you aspire to.
So, what’s a super liberal, in your books?
Are you an ultra conservative?
Pray, do tell.
Have a good day, Sir.
Source : Haris Ibrahim