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Strategi Kerajaan Keluarga Malaysia Kekang Inflasi

Strategi Kerajaan Kekang Inflasi

Hakikatnya kenaikan harga barangan terutama yang berkait makanan dan bahan bakar adalah fenomena global. Tidak kira samada negara maju atau mundur, kuasa besar atau negara kecil, semuanya terkesan dan tidak dapat dielakkan. Maksudnya bukan sahaja Malaysia yang mengalami fenomena ini. Pandemik, perang Ukraine dan perubahan iklim dianggap faktor tiga serangkai yang menjadi penyebab utama fenomena tersebut.

Cuma yang membezakan antara negara adalah tahap kesan yang dihadapi rakyat akibat kenaikan harga barangan. Faktor utama yang menentukan tahap ini adalah strategi yang digubal oleh kerajaan masing-masing. Tidak kira samada negara kuasa besar atau negara mundur, strategi yang efektif mampu meminimumkan kesan yang dirasai pengguna.

Kaedah paling mudah untuk menentukan kejayaan pengamalan strategi adalah melalui pengamatan kadar inflasi sesebuah negara yang ditentukan melalui kadar indeks harga pengguna (CPI) yang pada asasnya mengukur perubahan harga purata barang dan perkhidmatan yang lazim digunakan oleh isi rumah pada tempoh masa tertentu.

Di kalangan negara Asean kadar inflasi secara purata melonjak dari 3.9% pada April ke 4.7% untuk bulan seterusnya 2022. Bulan April mempamirkan bagaimana kadar inflasi empat negara Asean iaitu Singapura, Indonesia, Laos dan Thailand melonjak lebih sekali ganda. Malaysia pula menakjubkan menunjukan kadar inflasi menurun sementara Vietnam dan Filipina tiada perubahan.

Kadar inflasi 2022 untuk Malaysia diunjurkan 2.8% dan bagi 2023 pula 2.2%. Singapura pula dijangka mengalami kadar inflasi 5% sementara Indonesia pula dengan kadar 3.7% untuk 2022. Bagaimana Malaysia mampu mengekalkan kadar inflasi yang agak rendah berbanding dengan negara Asean yang lain ialah perbezaan strategi yang diamalkan oleh kerajaan masing-masing.

Paling utama ialah ialah strategi subsidi untuk beberapa kelompok barangan makanan yang dianggap ruji bagi rakyat Malaysia seperti minyak masak dan gula. Subsidi terhadap bahan bakar juga adalah penyumbang kritikal bagaimana Malaysia mampu berada dalam kadar inflasi yang agak rendah. Begitu jua dengan pemberian subsidi tarif elektrik bukan sahaja kepada pengguna domestik tetapi juga bukan domestik telah banyak menyumbang kepada pengawalan kadar inflasi.

Mungkin Malaysia sebagai negara kecil tidak mampu mengawal faktor tiga serangkai ini yang antara lain merencat rantaian bekalan global, tetapi dengan beberapa strategi subsidi yang diamalkan oleh kerajaan serta di tambah dengan bantuan wang tunai melalui mekanisma Bantuan Keluarga Malaysia (BKM), maka kesan inflasi terutama sekali terhadap kumpulan B40 dan M40 mampu diminimumkan.

Azmi Hassan
Geostrategis dan Felo Kanan
Akademi Penyelidikan Strategik Nusantara NASR

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